Breaking down May’s expected fuel price cuts
(Data as of 15 April 2025)
Following earlier fuel price predictions, South African motorists can finally breathe a sigh of relief as mid-month forecasts from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) point to broad-based fuel price decreases in May.
After months of volatile pricing, a stronger rand and declining global oil prices are combining to deliver much-needed savings at the pumps.
Projected price adjustments
| Fuel Type | April Price (Inland) | May Expected (Inland) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R21.51 | R21.36 | -15c |
| Petrol 95 | R21.62 | R21.44 | -18c |
| Diesel 0.05% | R19.32 (wholesale) | R18.94 | -38c |
| Diesel 0.005% | R19.35 (wholesale) | R18.96 | -39c |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R13.36 | R13.05 | -31c |
Coastal prices will be ~74c/litre cheaper than inland figures.
Why prices are falling
1. Rand recovery
The ZAR/USD exchange rate has strengthened to R18.06 (from R19.93 in early April), thanks to:
- Cooling US-SA trade tensions after tariff delays
- Stabilisation of the Government of National Unity (GNU)
2. Global oil collapse
Brent crude has plummeted 13% this month to $69/barrel due to:
- US-China trade war reducing demand
- OPEC+ oversupply flooding markets
- Recession fears dampening futures
Expert insight: AA weighs in
Automobile Association (AA) spokesperson Layton Beard warns:
“While these decreases are welcome, they’re not yet guaranteed. The rand remains vulnerable to political shifts, and oil markets are reacting hysterically to every US tariff tweet. Diesel users should celebrate – these cuts could finally ease food and transport inflation.”
What could still change?
The final DMRE adjustment (to be announced in April 30) depends on:
✔ Last two weeks of oil price trends
✔ Rand stability amid GNU negotiations
✔ Potential US tariff surprises
Practical impact for drivers
- Average car (50L tank): Save R7–R9 per fill-up (petrol)
- Truckers (500L diesel): Save R190–R195 per tank
- Paraffin households: R15.50 saved on 50L
The bottom line
After months of pain at the pumps, May’s projected fuel price cuts offer tangible relief – especially for diesel-dependent industries. But with 14 days of data remaining, motorists should monitor updates before celebrating.
Stay tuned for the DMRE’s official announcement on 30 April. We’ll update this article with confirmed prices.
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