South Africans can expect marginal fuel price changes from Wednesday, October 1, as the rand’s sharp rebound against the US dollar counterbalanced rising global oil prices.
Month-end data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to a fractional 3c hike for Petrol 95, while Petrol 93 may fall by about 5c—likely to be averaged into a negligible adjustment of around 1c/litre overall. Diesel users will enjoy modest relief, with 50ppm wholesale prices dropping by about 7c and 500ppm by 10c. Illuminating paraffin is also projected to decrease by 10c/litre.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) is expected to confirm the official adjustments before implementation on Wednesday, October 1 (DMRE.gov.za).
October price breakdown
- Petrol 93: ↓ 5c/l (possible averaging)
- Petrol 95: ↑ 3c/l
- Diesel 0.05% (500ppm): ↓ 10c/l
- Diesel 0.005% (50ppm): ↓ 7c/l
- Illuminating Paraffin: ↓ 10–12c/l
This means motorists in Gauteng will likely pay around R21.58 for Petrol 95 and R21.42 for Petrol 93, while 50ppm diesel will ease to about R19.40 inland and R18.64 at the coast.
Rand strength: The real hero of October
The rand surged to a one-year high of R17.25/$ late in September, thanks to strong foreign inflows into South Africa’s bond market. According to the DMRE, this translated into an estimated 14c per litre cushion, drastically reducing what could have been a 20c/litre petrol hike.
“Despite the late spike in international oil prices, it may be too late to affect recoveries for October petrol price adjustments,” the department noted.
Global oil trends and geopolitics
- Brent crude hovered between $67–69/barrel for much of September, edging higher after US President Donald Trump pressured NATO allies and Turkey to halt Russian oil imports.
- Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure further strained supply, though OPEC+ nations’ increased output kept prices in check.
- Demand concerns tied to US tariffs and slowing global growth also softened oil’s upward push.
2025 fuel trend recap
- June: Petrol dipped slightly, diesel surged.
- July: Sharp hikes for both petrol (+53c) and diesel.
- August: Petrol dropped 28c, diesel soared +65c.
- September: Both petrol and diesel eased.
- October: Minimal adjustments, cushioned by rand gains.
This leaves pump prices broadly aligned with January 2025 levels, despite the rollercoaster of mid-year volatility.
Economic implications
October’s modest shifts come in the context of a repo rate cut to 7.25%, which has offered some relief to indebted households. However, for transport operators and logistics-dependent businesses, even small diesel dips are welcome after the sting of mid-year surges.
What’s next?
Market watchers caution that while October’s calm is welcome, any renewed oil rally or rand weakness could quickly shift the equation. All eyes remain on geopolitical developments and OPEC+ supply moves heading into November.
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