Motorists across South Africa can expect some relief at the pumps in May, as current data suggests another round of fuel price cuts, extending a trend that began earlier this year.
According to data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), international product prices and an improving rand are driving the over-recovery in local fuel prices, although a few economic uncertainties still loom.
Petrol and diesel prices are set to decrease next month, barring any major shifts in the global or local economy. Latest projections indicate petrol prices are showing an over-recovery of between 10 and 14 cents per litre, while diesel prices show an over-recovery of about 35 cents per litre. Illuminating paraffin is also expected to benefit, with an over-recovery of 27 cents per litre.
This marks a continuation of April’s trend, which saw 95 petrol reduced by 72 cents per litre to R21.62. If market conditions remain stable throughout April, motorists will enjoy a second straight month of price cuts.
Preliminary data from the CEF’s April 7 snapshot suggests the following possible changes for May:
- Petrol 93: increase of 4 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: decrease of 1 cent per litre
- Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 30 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 32 cents per litre
- Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of 20 cents per litre
However, these daily predictive snapshots are not definitive and only serve as early estimates. Fuel prices are ultimately determined by two key variables: the average Rand/US Dollar exchange rate, and the average global oil price throughout the month.
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Global oil trends and rand exchange rate drive price forecasts
Despite recent improvements, the rand continues to face volatility due to both local and international developments.
Ongoing tariff tensions between the United States and China have disrupted global markets. China has imposed tariffs of up to 125% on US goods, while the US has retaliated with tariffs as high as 145%. In response, South Africa’s tariffs have been temporarily slashed for 90 days, falling from 30% to the global minimum of 10%, helping to stabilise the rand, which recovered from R19.93 to R19.31 against the dollar.
However, local political uncertainty adds a layer of complexity. The Democratic Alliance’s (DA) position in the Government of National Unity (GNU) remains uncertain following its vote against the 2025 National Budget. The party’s potential departure has raised concerns about the growing influence of smaller, populist parties and the possible implications for economic stability.
While global and domestic factors may still influence the final pricing, the current over-recovery suggests that markets would have to experience a significant downturn for an under-recovery to occur.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) will confirm the final price changes in the days leading up to the first Wednesday of May.
