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Data vs Fiction: Debunking the ‘white genocide myth’ used in Trump G20 US boycott

Beyond the political theater lies a stark factual disconnect. We analyze the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) evidence that contradicts the 'white genocide' rhetoric used to justify Donald Trump's full US boycott of the G20 Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa.

In a move that has sent shockwaves through international circles, US President Donald Trump announced via his Truth Social account on November 7, 2025, that no US government representatives will attend the G20 Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa.

The decision dramatically escalates tensions between the two countries and throws the high-profile gathering into uncertainty just two weeks before leaders from the world’s largest economies were set to convene.

“It is a total disgrace that the G20 will be held in South Africa,” Trump wrote, claiming that “Afrikaners — people descended from Dutch, French, and German settlers — are being killed and slaughtered, and their land and farms are being illegally confiscated.”

He declared that “no US Government Official will attend as long as these human rights abuses continue.” The boycott extends beyond Trump’s own non-attendance to include Vice President JD Vance, who had been scheduled to lead the American delegation.

The announcement follows months of rising nationalist rhetoric in both the US and South Africa, where thousands of Afrikaners rallied in Pretoria in support of Trump amid claims of racial persecution — a narrative many analysts describe as “white victimhood politics repackaged.”

This comes after a series of escalating diplomatic clashes, including US–South Africa relations reaching breaking point and Trump’s sanctions over land reform and South Africa’s ICJ case against Israel.


The White House’s justification: Claims of persecution

The Trump administration continues to insist that white South African farmers face systematic persecution — the cornerstone of its boycott justification.

  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed Trump’s stance on X, writing: “Afrikaners have been continuously subjected to violent racial discrimination by the South African government. I applaud @POTUS’s decision not to waste taxpayer dollars sending our diplomats to the G20 while this heinous violence continues.”
  • The administration’s refugee policy reflects the same bias; the White House recently cut refugee admissions to 7,500 annually, prioritising “Afrikaners from South Africa.”
  • The Expropriation Act of 2025, a central part of South Africa’s land reform, has become a flashpoint. Trump’s administration labels it “illegal confiscation,” despite government assurances that it only applies under specific conditions, such as abandoned or unused state-owned land.

South Africa strongly refutes ‘genocide claims’, denounces “imperialist interference”

South African officials have responded with a combination of diplomatic restraint and sharp condemnation, uniformly rejecting the US allegations as baseless and politically motivated.

ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula delivered the most fiery response during an interview with eNCA, dismissing Trump’s claims as “blatant lies” and “imperialist interference.”

“This is a blatant lie. There is no racial discrimination happening in South Africa,” Mbalula stated. “South Africa’s laws seek to redress imbalances created by apartheid, which was declared by the UN as a crime against humanity, particularly against black people. We don’t take kindly to imperialist flirtations.”

Mbalula accused the Trump administration of disrespecting South Africa’s sovereignty, declaring that “Trump’s administration has got no regard for our sovereignty. They think that we are a sub-country of the US, which is very unfortunate on their part.”
He reaffirmed that the summit would proceed “with or without the US.”

Official government responses have been more measured but equally firm. The Department of International Relations and Cooperation (Dirco) characterized Trump’s social media post as “regrettable,” stating that “the claim that this community faces persecution is not substantiated by fact.”

Minister Ronald Lamola specifically addressed what he called “claims of a ‘white genocide’ or its euphemism, Afrikaner persecution,” describing them as “imagined and used for political expediency.”


Farm attacks in South Africa: Setting the record straight

A July 2025 policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) — authored by Gareth Newham (Head of the ISS Justice and Violence Prevention Programme) and Lizette Lancaster (Manager of the ISS Crime and Justice Information and Analysis Hub) — provides conclusive evidence that refutes claims of a genocide against white farmers in South Africa.

📄 Download full report: ISS Policy Brief No. 201 (July 2025)


Key findings

There is no evidence of a coordinated campaign — political or otherwise — aimed at targeting white farmers.
According to the ISS, if such a campaign existed, “patterns linked to specific events such as political rallies or historical dates like Sharpeville would be clearly visible.” They are not.

The ISS found that robbery remains the primary motive in nearly all farm attacks.
Only a small number relate to domestic disputes or labour-related tensions. Cases with clear racial or political motives are “exceedingly rare.”


Verified farm crime statistics (ISS, January–March 2025)

CategoryStatistic / FindingNotes
Total murders on farms/smallholdings6Two farmers and four employees/residents killed
White victims1Out of six total victims (one white resident)
National murders (same period)5,727≈64 murders per day across South Africa
Farm murders (2023–24 financial year)49Out of 27,621 total national murders (≈0.2%)
Farm murder victims over 60 years old68%Suggests attackers target perceived vulnerability
Armed robberies nationwide (Jan–Mar 2025)31,749Predominantly urban but includes rural incidents
Primary motiveRobberyNot racial or political in nature

Source: Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Policy Brief No. 201, July 2025

“Statistics mean little to those who have lost loved ones,” the authors write.
“But to address violent crime effectively, South Africa must rely on accurate, evidence-based data — not misinformation.”


Land reform: Redressing historical imbalances versus ‘confiscation’

Central to the dispute is South Africa’s land reform program, designed to address historical injustices rooted in the apartheid era, when the white minority controlled most of the nation’s land and resources.

The Expropriation Act of 2025 formalizes the process for Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC), but under what the government describes as “specific, narrow conditions,” such as for abandoned land, unused state-owned land, or where a community has occupied the land for generations.

The South African government emphasizes that land reform is meant to correct historic injustices left by apartheid, not to target a specific group.
As NOWinSA has previously reported, this legislation has become a flashpoint in increasingly strained US–South Africa relations, intersecting with other contentious issues such as South Africa’s ICJ case against Israel.


Broader geopolitical context and Summit implications

Analysts view the boycott as part of a wider realignment of US–Africa relations amid rising global tensions.

The announcement comes just months after President Ramaphosa’s high-stakes Washington May 2025 visit — an attempt to reset strained ties with the US that now appears to have backfired spectacularly.

  • South Africa continues to align with Russia and China within the Global South while challenging US policy in the Middle East.
  • Diplomatic fallout has already intensified, with Washington having expelled South Africa’s ambassador Ebrahim Rasool earlier this year following explosive comments about Trump’s Africa policy.
  • The boycott could complicate the transfer of the G20 presidency from South Africa to the US, as no senior American officials will be present to formally accept the role.

Furthermore, Trump’s boycott also reflects a broader political fallout with former allies like tech billionaire, whose public meltdown over the collapse of his Trump alliance signaled the end of their brief political bromance.

Despite this, South African officials remain confident. Dirco spokesperson Chrispin Phiri told the BBC the summit’s success “will not rest on one member state,” adding, “We will move on without the United States.”

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Editor's Desk
Editor's Desk
Curated by editor-in-chief, Tankiso Komane, this special collection of articles from the Editor's Desk unpacks topics of the day, including commentary, in-depth analysis and partner content.
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