Motorists across South Africa can breathe a sigh of relief as early data points to a petrol price drop in August. However, diesel users may want to prepare for more pain at the pump, with increases looming for both grades.
According to the latest mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), fuel price trends are showing a decrease of up to 26 cents per litre for petrol, while diesel is set for a hefty increase of 62–63 cents per litre.
Expected fuel price adjustments – August 2025:
- Petrol 93: ↓ 26 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: ↓ 22 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): ↑ 63 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): ↑ 62 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: ↑ 27 cents per litre
📌 Track daily changes at CEF here
Why petrol is dropping – but diesel isn’t
The upcoming petrol cut comes amid a rollercoaster in global oil markets, worsened by geopolitical unrest and anticipated US trade tariffs.
While petrol prices have largely stabilized, diesel is under significant pressure due to multiple compounding factors:
- High industrial demand, especially from China
- Dwindling inventories in the US and Europe
- New EU sanctions impacting Russian diesel exports
- Rising refining margins and summer demand driving up costs globally
As reported by Bloomberg:
“The sanctions package has lifted crude prices on the back of concerns about diesel supplies to Europe,” said Florence Schmit, strategist at Rabobank in London.
“Strength in diesel has been keeping crude prices elevated for the last few weeks.”
Global and local factors at play
The divergence in fuel pricing began in mid-June, triggered by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which briefly pushed crude oil above $80 per barrel. Since then, prices have eased, but not evenly across fuel types.
Meanwhile, the South African rand has remained surprisingly resilient, trading below R18/$, thanks largely to a weakening US dollar. This has helped soften the blow for local petrol prices, though diesel remains vulnerable.
“Uncertainty still persists on what the final outcome will be and for how long the extensions and negotiations will continue,” said Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec.
“While markets are relying on the ‘taco trade’ (Trump always chickens out), there is room for disappointment.”
Fuel price trends: March to July 2025 recap
Fuel prices have seen notable swings in 2025:
- ✅ March: Petrol down 7c, diesel up to 24c cheaper
- ✅ April: Cuts for both petrol and diesel
- ✅ May: Petrol drops 22c, diesel down up to 42c
- ⚠️ June: Petrol barely down, diesel jumped 37c
- ❌ July: Big hike across the board
When will the new prices take effect?
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will confirm the final August fuel prices on Monday, August 5, with adjustments officially taking effect from Wednesday, August 6.
Final prices may still change depending on:
- Tax adjustments
- Slate Levy movements
- Storage & transport costs
- Rand/dollar fluctuations
📌 See the DMRE’s official fuel pricing breakdown
Bottom line
August brings some welcome relief for petrol drivers, but diesel users are in for another pinch. With global oil prices still volatile and US trade threats looming, the months ahead remain uncertain.
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