Following earlier fuel price cut predictions, South African motorists will enjoy a third straight month of fuel price relief in May 2025, with confirmed decreases of up to 38 cents per litre for diesel and 21 cents for petrol, pushing some diesel prices below the R19 mark for the first time this year.
The reductions come as latest inflation data shows fuel prices have been a key factor in slowing price growth across the economy. FNB Senior Economist Koketso Mano noted: “The March inflation slowdown to 2.7% confirms fuel price cuts are easing cost pressures, though risks from the VAT hike and food price volatility remain.”
Our analysis (below), per Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) latest data, reveals a clear downward trend since March— continuing through April (Fuel Predictions) and into May—although the looming VAT increase to 15.5% may offset some of the savings households were expecting.
May 2025 price adjustments
| Fuel Type | April Price (Inland) | May Price (Inland) | Decrease | Total Drop Since March |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 95 Unleaded | R21.62 | R21.44 | -18c | -90c (from R22.34) |
| Petrol 93 Unleaded | R21.51 | R21.38 | -13c | -71c (from R22.09) |
| Diesel 0.05% | R19.32 | R18.94 | -38c | -86c (est.) |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R13.35 | R13.05 | -30c | -60c (est.) |
Note: Coastal prices typically 60-80c/litre cheaper than inland
What this means for consumers
✅ For car owners:
- 50-litre tank of 95 Unleaded now costs R45 less than in March
- Monthly commute (200L) saves R180 vs. March prices
✅ For businesses:
- Trucking company using 500L diesel saves R190 in May alone
- Total savings since March: ~R430 per 500L fill
✅ For households:
- Paraffin users save R30 per 100 litres
- Combined with March-April cuts, total relief reaches R60 per 100 litres
Why prices keep falling
- 1️⃣ Global Oil Trends
- Brent Crude averaged $67/barrel in April (vs. $71 in March)
- OPEC+ production increases and softer global demand
- 2️⃣ Rand Performance
- Strengthened to R18.60/$ (from R19.93/$ in early April)
- Still weaker than March’s average of R18.30/$
- 3️⃣ Local Factors
- Slate Levy remains at 0c/litre
- VAT increase to 15.5% (from 1 May) may offset some savings
Inflation & economic impact
📉 March 2025 Inflation Data Highlights:
- Headline inflation: 2.7% y/y (down from 3.2% in February)
- Fuel prices down 8.8% year-on-year
- Food inflation slowing to 2.7% y/y (meat/dairy deflation)
Looking Ahead:
- April inflation expected to hold at ~2.7% (FNB forecast)
- Further fuel cuts could maintain disinflationary pressure
- SARB may have room for interest rate cuts later in 2025
Regional price differences
Best savings:
- Gauteng motorists: 95 Unleaded down 4% since March
- Eastern Cape coastal: Diesel at R18.30/litre (wholesale)
Areas with less relief:
- Inland paraffin users still pay R13.05/litre vs. R12.15 coastal
3-month price trend visualization
Petrol 95 Price Trend (Inland)
R22.50 ┤ ● March (R22.34)
R22.00 ┤ │
R21.50 ┤ ● April (R21.62)
R21.00 ┤ ● May (R21.44)
└─────────────
Mar Apr. May
Key takeaways
✔ Third straight monthly decrease for fuel prices
✔ Diesel drops below R19/litre for first time in 2025
✔ Inflation data confirms fuel’s disinflationary impact
✔ VAT hike may offset 30% of savings for households
Next Update: The final May fuel prices in South Africa is expected to be announced by DMRE on May 1, with the new prices taking effect at midnight on May 6, 2025.
How to use this information
Households: Recalculate monthly transport budgets
Businesses: Adjust logistics/operating costs
- Policy Watch: Monitor SARB’s response to sustained low inflation
Sources: DMRE, CEF, FNB Research, SARB
NOWinSA – Trusted Stories Shaping South Africa Today
