Stage 2 load shedding is back — and stage 4 could be next
South Africans will once again have to navigate power cuts as Eskom confirmed the return of Stage 2 load shedding during evening peak hours — from 4pm to 10pm daily until Thursday, May 15, 2025. This comes amid a spike in unplanned outages and delays in returning critical units to service, plunging the grid into a vulnerable state.
“The primary reason for this setback is the delay in returning several units from planned maintenance. These delays, coupled with an unplanned capacity loss that has now temporarily exceeded 13,000MW, align with the risk scenarios shared in our Winter 2025 Outlook,” Eskom stated.
The latest round of cuts is part of the utility’s efforts to “manage limited generation capacity and ensure continued supply during the working days.” However, the timing couldn’t be worse for thousands of students preparing for mid-year university exams, with many taking to social media to voice concerns over how power outages could impact their ability to study and complete assignments.
Why the grid is still so fragile
According to Eskom, the country is emerging from an intensive maintenance cycle, which — while necessary for long-term reliability — reduces short-term resilience. Delays in returning 3,120MW to service and an additional 1,385MW lost due to breakdowns pushed total unplanned losses beyond the safe limit.
“Our new Operational Excellence Programme is key to restoring performance. We are reinforcing oversight, strengthening accountability, and aligning service providers with stricter performance standards,” said Eskom CEO Dan Marokane.
Despite the ongoing challenges, Marokane maintains that the system is in a stronger position than last winter, with 96% generation availability in the past financial year versus just 9% in 2024.
Energy experts: Prepare for stage 4
Still, energy analysts are sounding the alarm.
Impower energy expert Matthew Cruise says South Africans should brace for deeper blackouts if current trends continue.
“We’re currently at 15,680MW in terms of unplanned outages. So we’ve gone way past the 15,000MW that they said would lead to stage 2 load-shedding this winter,” he told 702.
Cruise warns that we could be heading toward a repeat of Stage 6 load shedding earlier this year if outages worsen.
In its Winter Outlook 2025, Eskom indicated that no load shedding would be necessary if breakdowns stayed below 13,000MW. Once the threshold reaches 15,000MW — as it already has — up to 21 days of load shedding can be expected.
Minister Ramokgopa: We’re still on track
Electricity Minister Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa confirmed the figures during a media briefing, admitting that delays in maintenance and contractor performance are partly to blame.
“That’s not for the public. I think that’s for us to manage, so this represents a failure on our part to ensure that there’s proper management of OEMs,” said Ramokgopa.
However, he was optimistic about the bigger picture:
“All things we shared regarding the winter outlook remain valid. We’re on a much better footing than last year.”
What Stage 2 and Stage 4 load shedding actually means
Stage 2 load shedding means up to 2,000MW of capacity is cut from the grid. Most residents can expect power cuts 6 times over four days, lasting two to four hours each. If Stage 4 load shedding is implemented, the figure jumps to 4,000MW, with outages up to 12 times in four days.
Also, customers in areas that experience 2-hour blocks in lower stages may find that these are extended to 4 hours as higher stages are activated.
“#Loadshedding is implemented to safeguard the national electricity grid by balancing supply and demand,” Eskom reminded South Africans on social media. “You can contribute to grid stability by minimizing your electricity consumption.”
What you can do now
While the situation remains fluid, there are practical steps every household and business can take:
- Limit the use of heavy appliances during peak hours (16:00–22:00).
- Keep backup batteries charged for critical devices.
- Check your load shedding schedule regularly.
- Ensure your security systems and lighting are prepared for prolonged outages.
- Stay informed through official Eskom updates.
