After two consecutive months of fuel price cuts in January and February, March 2026 is shaping up to be the first month where fuel recoveries move into the red. Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows negative recoveries for both petrol and diesel, signaling higher costs at the pumps for South African motorists.
Petrol prices show a minor under-recovery of a few cents per litre, while diesel’s under-recovery is significantly steeper, at about 46 cents per litre.
Projected fuel price changes for March 2026
- Petrol 93 – projected increase of 1 cent per litre
- Petrol 95 – projected increase of 2 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% – projected increase of 45 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% – projected increase of 47 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin – projected increase of 23 cents per litre
These projections are based on mid-month trends. Final prices will be confirmed by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) and take effect on March 4, 2026.
Why fuel prices are rising
Several factors are driving March’s fuel price outlook:
- Global Oil Price Fluctuations
Brent crude oil is trading around $67 per barrel, higher than sub-$60 lows in December 2025. Rising international prices place South Africa’s petroleum product rates in the under-recovery zone. - Geopolitical Tensions
US and Iranian naval activity near the Strait of Hormuz creates supply uncertainty. Any escalation could push oil prices higher, further affecting local petrol and diesel costs. - Rand Movements
The rand has been relatively stable. A stronger rand could offset some petrol costs, but diesel remains under pressure due to larger under-recovery.
Understanding petrol pricing
Petrol prices are comprised of:
- Basic Fuel Price (BFP) – Import, freight, insurance, and storage costs.
- General Fuel Levy & Road Accident Fund (RAF) Levy – Indirect taxes of ~R5.59/litre on petrol and R5.19/litre on diesel.
- Wholesale & Retail Margins – Distribution, marketing, and operational costs.
Recent trends
- January 2026: Petrol dropped up to 50c/litre; diesel fell by over R1/litre (read more)
- February 2026: Petrol decreased by 65c/litre, diesel by 65c/litre (read more)
March marks the end of this brief period of relief, with negative recoveries indicating higher costs for most drivers.
What this means for motorists
If current conditions—stable rand and oil prices—persist, petrol users may be slightly worse off, while diesel users face a steep increase. However, should oil prices fall or the rand strengthen further, petrol users could save a few cents per litre.
Stay updated via AA Fuel Pricing to monitor daily trends.
Looking ahead
Economists warn that potential fuel levy changes in April, as part of the National Budget Speech, could further increase costs. March will likely serve as the first indicator of 2026’s shift from over-recovery to under-recovery in South Africa’s fuel market.
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