South African motorists should brace for a sharp increase in petrol and diesel prices from Wednesday, September 2, based on the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) projections.
Petrol 93 and 95 are both projected to increase by around 90 cents to R1 per litre, broadly confirming the trend identified in our mid-month fuel price predictions, which pointed to further increases as global oil prices remained under pressure. Diesel is projected to face the biggest increase.
The figures also follow a mixed August fuel price adjustment that briefly gave petrol motorists some relief.
September petrol and diesel price projections
These are projected increases, not the final September fuel prices.
According to daily tracking data from the Central Energy Fund, petrol 93 ULP/LRP is projected to increase by 90 cents per litre, while petrol 95 ULP/LRP could increase by R1.01 per litre.
Diesel faces a much larger increase. The latest projections show 0.05% sulphur diesel increasing by R2.88 per litre and 0.005% sulphur diesel by R3.09 per litre.
Illuminating paraffin could increase by R2.24 per litre.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will publish the final, official September 2026 fuel price adjustment during the last weekend of August.
What petrol and diesel could cost in September
Based on the current projections, inland motorists could pay:
- Petrol 93: R26.30 per litre
- Petrol 95: R26.57 per litre
- 0.05% sulphur diesel: R29.05 per litre
- 0.005% sulphur diesel: R29.99 per litre
Coastal prices would remain slightly lower. Petrol 95 is projected at R25.72 per litre, while diesel could cost between R28.18 and R28.73 per litre, depending on sulphur content.
Oil prices and the Iran-US conflict
The latest fuel price projections reflect movements in international oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate. The ongoing Iran-US conflict has also affected oil supply and shipping in the region.
Petrol recoveries had fallen to around 50 cents per litre by mid-August as hopes of improved shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz eased some of the pressure.
Oil prices then moved higher as markets followed new US measures targeting Iran. On August 21, Brent was trading near $94 a barrel, with the benchmark heading for a weekly gain of about 6%, according to World Oil.
Higher international oil prices have added pressure to South Africa’s fuel price outlook.
Diesel has performed somewhat better than petrol in recent tracking. Its under-recovery has narrowed from R4.84 per litre at the start of August to around R3, although it still faces the largest projected increase per litre.
Stronger rand provides some relief
A stronger rand has provided some relief.
The currency has been trading close to R16 to the US dollar, reducing the fuel price under-recovery by an estimated 13 to 19 cents per litre.
The rand’s recent strength followed the latest US Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which highlighted inflation concerns and reduced expectations of further US rate cuts.
September fuel price increase follows a volatile year
The projected September increase follows several sharp movements in South Africa’s fuel prices this year.
July brought increases of 50 cents for petrol and 84 cents for diesel. In June, petrol prices eased slightly, while diesel fell by R3.15 per litre to R25.60.
May saw much larger increases. Petrol 93 rose by R3.27 per litre, while petrol 95 increased by R5.27 per litre.
The September fuel price projections can still change before the official adjustment. International oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate will continue to influence the final figures.
The latest CEF data points to higher petrol and diesel prices from September 2, with diesel facing the larger projected increase.
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