South African motorists are set to feel the squeeze at the pump this July, with substantial fuel price increases on the horizon. Following a period of monthly relief—including June’s minor petrol dip and a significant 37c diesel drop—the tide has turned sharply.
Driven by mid-June geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a briefly weakened rand, local fuel recoveries slipped deeply into the red by month-end, setting the stage for the biggest increase in months.
What to expect from July 2
According to the Central Energy Fund’s data and market indicators, the official fuel price changes expected on Wednesday, July 2 (2025) are:
- Petrol 93: +50 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: +53 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (500ppm): +82 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (50ppm): +84 cents per litre
- Illuminating Paraffin: +67 cents per litre
This brings the inland retail price of 95-octane petrol to R21.90 per litre, with diesel climbing to over R19.41, depending on the grade and wholesale margins.
What’s behind the price surge?
1. Middle East Conflict Disrupts Oil Markets
The sudden escalation between Israel and Iran, compounded by U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in mid-June, pushed Brent crude oil prices briefly past $80 a barrel. Although prices eased back to around $68 after a ceasefire, the damage to July’s average fuel recovery was already done.
2. Rand Turbulence and Recovery
The rand fell sharply to R18.07/$ during the peak of the conflict, before recovering to R17.78/$ by month-end. While this recovery helped limit further increases, it came too late to cancel the under-recovery losses already accrued earlier in the month.
3. Fuel Levy Increases
New government levies added 16 cents per litre for petrol and 15 cents for diesel from early June—an unavoidable factor contributing to July’s consumer pain.
The relief that was: March–June fuel trends
Motorists had enjoyed a four-month streak of declining prices:
- ✅ March 2025: Petrol down 7c, diesel up to 24c cheaper
- ✅ April 2025: Further official cuts announced
- ✅ May 2025: Petrol down 22c, diesel up to 42c – fuel relief explained
- ✅ June 2025: Petrol down a whisper, diesel drops 37c
This July marks the end of that streak—and a reversal back toward higher inflationary pressure.
What it will cost you
- Small car (45-litre tank): +R24.75 (petrol)
- Mid-size SUV or sedan (60-litre tank): +R33.00
- Large SUV or bakkie (80-litre tank): +R44 (petrol), +R67.20 (diesel)
For diesel drivers—particularly those operating double-cabs like the Toyota Hilux or Ford Ranger—the cost hike is especially steep. With diesel prices unregulated, actual forecourt costs could vary widely.
Economic outlook & SARB’s View
While July’s jump may rattle consumers, economists say it’s unlikely to drive inflation significantly higher. Petrol prices remain R1.41 cheaper than July 2024, offering a cushioning effect on annual CPI calculations.
The South African Reserve Bank, which recently cut the repo rate to 7.25%, is expected to “look through” this short-term spike as part of its broader monetary policy strategy.
Looking ahead
Unless another major geopolitical flare-up disrupts oil routes—especially the Strait of Hormuz—analysts expect fuel prices to stabilise or decline again in the months ahead, particularly with global supply remaining strong and the rand showing signs of resilience.
Still, for now, South Africans should brace for a sharp pump price adjustment starting this week.
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