South African motorists could be in for another welcome break at the pumps this November 2025, with mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) pointing to a substantial drop in both petrol and diesel prices — marking the fourth consecutive month of positive movement for consumers.
According to the CEF’s latest projections captured on October 10, petrol prices could drop by as much as 60 cents per litre, while diesel may decrease by around 25 cents per litre, thanks to falling international oil prices and a relatively stable rand.
“Considering the CEF’s history when it comes to fuel prices, it’s safe to get a little excited about the prospect of cheaper prices across the board come November,” the Fund said in its latest update.
Here’s what the CEF’s early data shows
The current mid-month snapshot suggests a strong over-recovery — an indicator of potential price cuts — across both petrol and diesel grades.
| Fuel Type | Projected Change |
|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | ↓ 61 cents per litre |
| Petrol 95 | ↓ 58 cents per litre |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | ↓ 26 cents per litre |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | ↓ 26 cents per litre |
| Illuminating Paraffin | ↓ 12 cents per litre |
The final adjustment will be confirmed by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) on Friday, October 31, before implementation on Wednesday, November 5, 2025.
For context, fuel price projections are based on two main variables — the Rand/US Dollar exchange rate and international oil prices. Encouragingly, the latter has been on a downward trend, now hovering at around $62.40 a barrel, compared to nearly $70 in early September.
Tracking the trend
November’s expected decrease follows months of mixed movements in 2025:
- July: Petrol up 53c, diesel even higher
- August: Petrol drops 28c, diesel up 65c
- September: Both petrol and diesel drop
- October: Another significant decline
This means motorists are set to enjoy their fourth straight month of relief, further boosted by a recent repo rate cut to 7.25% — a development that, as unpacked in this NOWinSA analysis, outlines how lower borrowing costs help ease household debt and stimulate consumer spending amid high living costs.
Rand volatility and global oil dynamics
Despite recent rand volatility, the local currency has shown resilience, briefly strengthening toward R17.00/$ earlier in October before slipping slightly amid US market turbulence.
Economists attribute this to a weaker US dollar, strong local commodity performance, and expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the global oil market continues to soften due to reduced demand and growing stockpiles. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a record crude surplus of nearly 4 million barrels a day in 2026, amplifying downward pressure on prices.
Expected pump prices (Inland vs Coastal)
| Location | October Official | November Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Inland (Petrol 95) | R21.63 | R21.05 |
| Inland (Diesel 0.005%) | R19.39 | R19.13 |
| Coastal (Petrol 95) | R20.80 | R20.22 |
| Coastal (Diesel 0.005%) | R18.63 | R18.37 |
These figures, while provisional, provide a strong indication that motorists could save around R30–R35 per full tank in November, depending on vehicle type.
What’s next
The CEF will continue releasing daily snapshots in the lead-up to the official announcement. Should the downward trend persist, the November 2025 adjustment could deliver one of the year’s most significant petrol and diesel price cuts, reinforcing the positive consumer sentiment seen since early spring.
