South African motorists are set for an even bigger December windfall.
The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that cumulative over-recoveries have widened further, pushing petrol cuts well past the R2.35 per litre mark.
As we reported in our initial December 2026 fuel price forecast, early data already pointed to significant relief.
The latest daily snapshot (through November 11) shows that the savings are now even bigger.
Here are the updated projections, and why diesel could still drop despite the upcoming tax clawback.
December 2026 projected fuel prices: The latest CEF data
The latest CEF daily report for November 11 shows daily over-recoveries cooled slightly from Monday’s peak but remained well above R2.30/litre for diesel and R4.20/litre for petrol.
This has pulled the monthly averages sharply higher.
| Fuel Grade | Cumulative Avg (30 Oct – 11 Nov) | Net Projected Dec Change |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol 95 ULP | +312.44 c/l (R3.12) | – R2.62 / litre (cut) |
| Petrol 93 ULP | +285.74 c/l (R2.86) | – R2.36 / litre (cut) |
| Diesel 0.05% (500ppm) | +96.92 c/l (R0.97) | + R0.53 / litre (hike) |
| Diesel 0.005% (50ppm) | +133.62 c/l (R1.34) | + R0.16 / litre (hike) |
Official November inland prices currently sit at R30.24 for 95 ULP, R29.87 for 93 ULP, R30.86 wholesale for 500ppm diesel, and R31.60 wholesale for 50ppm diesel.
Why petrol cuts just got bigger
Three key factors have driven the latest surge in over-recoveries:
1. Plummeting international product prices: Falling global refined fuel prices account for almost the entire buffer, contributing 310.67 c/l to Petrol 95’s cumulative over-recovery and 130.96 c/l to 50ppm diesel.
2. A stronger Rand: The Rand firmed to R16.3375/$ on November 10, adding a modest positive buffer of 1.74 c/l to petrol and 2.60 c/l to low-sulphur diesel.
3. Draining geopolitical risk premium: Benchmark Brent crude has dropped roughly 15% over the past week, slipping below $100/barrel toward $98.
Markets reacted to post-US midterm election dynamics and signals from Washington that fresh military strikes against Iran are unlikely while talks progress.
This has eased Strait of Hormuz supply fears.
What you will actually pay in December
When you combine the favourable market over-recoveries with the scheduled reduction of National Treasury’s temporary fuel levy relief, here are the projected retail pump prices for December 2026:
| Fuel Type | Projected Change | Expected Dec Price (Inland) |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 ULP | – R2.36 | R27.51 |
| Petrol 95 ULP | – R2.62 | R27.62 |
| Diesel 0.05% (500ppm) | + R0.53 | R31.39 |
| Diesel 0.005% (50ppm) | + R0.16 | R31.76 |
December 2026: Diesel could still drop
Low-sulphur diesel’s net projected hike has halved in a single day—from 34c/l down to just 16c/l.
With daily over-recoveries holding around R2.74/l, two or three more trading days at current oil and rand levels will wipe out the remaining deficit and tip 50ppm diesel into a net December price cut.
Why is diesel lagging petrol? Under the R10 billion relief package announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, diesel received a R3/l general fuel levy cut for November.
That cut steps down to R1.50/l from December 2 through January 5, 2027—creating a 150c/l hurdle before pump prices can drop.
This is not the first time government has used this mechanism.
In April 2026, the government also introduced a temporary R3 fuel levy cut to cushion motorists against steep price hikes driven by Middle East tensions.
The pattern is clear: when global markets spike, Treasury steps in with temporary relief — and then scales it back as conditions improve.
Market volatility heading into the weekend
While the latest CEF data reflects a massive mid-week surge in over-recoveries, global oil markets have seen renewed volatility heading into the weekend.
Benchmark Brent crude — which dipped to a weekly low of $91.49 per barrel on November 11 to help drive petrol’s daily over-recovery past R4.38/litre — rebounded toward $95.74–$96.13 per barrel on Friday, November 13, following fresh Middle East supply headlines.
At the same time, the Rand softened slightly from R16.53/$ in the November 11 CEF snapshot to trade near R16.76/$.
Although this late-week bounce in oil and currency movement will likely moderate daily over-recoveries in upcoming CEF reports, Brent remains more than 9% below late-October levels above $104 per barrel.
Cumulative averages remain heavily in motorists’ favour — keeping petrol firmly on track for a December price cut exceeding R2.35 to R2.60 per litre.
When will the official December fuel prices be announced?
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) will lock in the final numbers at month-end and announce the official prices ahead of the December 2, 2026 adjustment.
We will update this page as soon as the official figures are released.
For current pump rates and historical price trends, visit our official petrol and diesel prices hub.
