South African motorists could see a significant drop in petrol prices in December.
Early data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to an over-recovery of over R2 per litre before government adjustments.
However, diesel users will not be as lucky. Early data indicates an under-recovery for diesel, meaning prices are set to rise.
This outlook comes as motorists experienced almost no relief in November, where both 93 and 95 petrol fell by just 1 cent per litre, while diesel dropped by over R1.
For a full breakdown of the current prices in effect right now, check our latest SA fuel price updates.
The early December outlook: What the CEF data says
The latest CEF data for the first week of November points to two major factors driving the December outlook.
First, international oil prices have dropped sharply. Brent crude fell from $118 to around $95 a barrel.
Second, the Rand has strengthened against the US Dollar, currently trading around R16.50.
Here is the raw CEF data for the start of November:
| Fuel Type | CEF Early Prediction |
|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | Decrease of R1.53 per litre |
| Petrol 95 | Decrease of R1.84 per litre |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | Increase of R0.54 per litre |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | Increase of R0.19 per litre |
The catch: The fuel levy relief is being reduced
Before you celebrate the petrol drop, there is a critical catch for December.
National Treasury is scaling back the temporary fuel levy relief introduced earlier this year.
In November, the government slashed the General Fuel Levy (GFL) by R1.50 per litre for petrol and R3.00 for diesel to cushion households. Read our full report on the fuel levy cut here.
In December, that relief is being reduced.
The petrol relief falls from R1.50 to R1.00 (adding 50 cents back to the price), and the diesel relief falls from R3.00 to R1.50 (adding R1.50 back).
What you will actually pay at the pumps in December
When you combine the CEF early predictions with the reduced fuel levy relief, here is the projected final retail price for December 2026:
| Fuel Type | Current Nov Price | Projected Change | Expected Dec Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R29.87 | – R1.03 | R28.84 |
| Petrol 95 | R30.24 | – R1.34 | R28.90 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R30.85 | + R2.04 | R32.89 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R31.60 | + R1.69 | R33.29 |
Why did November’s prices barely move?
On Wednesday, 4 November, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMRE) officially announced the November adjustments.
While the data originally pointed to a roughly R1.50 per litre petrol increase, the government’s temporary relief measure cancelled it out, resulting in a tiny 1 cent decrease.
Diesel, however, saw a significant cut of over R1.00 per litre.
This follows a tough year for motorists, which included a massive R3.33 petrol increase in October and ongoing global pressure from US-Iran tensions affecting oil prices.
When will the official December prices be announced?
The CEF predictions will be updated mid-month and again at the end of November.
DMRE will make the official announcement on the Monday or Tuesday before the first Wednesday of December.
We will update this page as soon as the official DMRE figures are released.
