Motorists may breathe a little easier this week as the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to bigger-than-expected fuel price drops in June — even with the upcoming general fuel levy increase announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana.
According to the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, which is expected to officially confirm the new prices by midnight Tuesday, petrol is likely to drop by 19 to 20 cents per litre, while diesel could fall by as much as 50 cents per litre.
This is a notably stronger outlook compared to earlier CEF predictions last week, which had indicated a much smaller 4c drop in petrol and 37c for diesel. (Read the earlier forecast here).
The main drivers of the drop are softer global oil prices and a relatively stable rand-dollar exchange rate, despite market volatility.
“While the tax increase is a blow to road users, further reductions in fuel prices—no matter how small—will help keep inflation under control and also ease the country’s cost-of-living crisis.”
“The increase, which only applies to the General Fuel Levy, is the first in three years, and is necessary to cover the funding gap created by getting rid of VAT increases,” the Finance Minister said in his third budget speech on May 21.
The projected petrol price drop — if confirmed — would mark a consistent and even a larger decline compared to the last few months. In March, petrol fall by 7 cents and diesel by up to 24 cents. That was followed by more relief in April and a more substantial May decrease of 22c for petrol and 42c for diesel, as covered here.
However, the June relief could be partially offset by the first general fuel levy increase in three years, set to take effect Wednesday, June 4, unless a last-minute court intervention delays it.
What to expect at the pumps – June 2025 projections
Based on month-end CEF data, here are the latest pricing predictions:
- Petrol 93 and 95: decrease of 20 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% and 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 50 cents per litre
- Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of over 55 cents per litre
However, if the 16 cents per litre fuel levy increase for petrol and 15 cents for diesel goes ahead as planned, motorists may only see a marginal net decrease — possibly as little as 4 cents per litre for petrol and 37 cents for diesel, depending on how the final adjustments are calculated.
On a more positive note, month-end CEF data reflects an over-recovery of 52 cents for diesel and 20 cents for petrol, suggesting that despite the levy hike, a net price drop remains likely.
Why prices are easing — for now
As detailed in our recent report (read more), global oil prices have declined by around 15% since January, with markets anticipating oversupply. Combined with a stable rand, hovering below R18.00/$, the conditions have created space for fuel price relief — despite pressure from budget-driven tax increases.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) acknowledged this price stability in its May statement, citing it as a factor behind the recent 25 basis point repo rate cut — a move that could benefit consumers and home loan holders. (Read what it means for your debt).
Relief continues — but for how long?
If realised, June would mark the fourth consecutive month of fuel price relief, following:
Still, with uncertainty around court rulings, fuel levy implementation, and volatile global oil trends, motorists should brace for more price swings in the months ahead.
➡️ Stay tuned to NOWinSA for the official fuel price announcement and the outcome of the court challenge — as we continue delivering Stories Shaping South Africa Today.
.
