JOHANNESBURG – Following significant April fuel cuts, South African drivers could see another welcome relief at the pumps next week. However, the weakening rand continues to chip away at what could have been deeper fuel price cuts.
The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggests a decrease of just over 20 cents per litre for 95 Unleaded petrol, while both grades of diesel are set for a reduction of around 38 cents per litre.
Petrol and diesel price cuts are expected in May, as the data shows, although the benefit is being undermined by a weaker rand, which is limiting the extent of the potential savings.
The Good: Brent Crude Keeps Dropping
Fuel prices are largely shaped by international oil trends. Brent Crude Oil has dropped from $74 to around $64 a barrel during the April review period. According to mid-month CEF data, this is driving a possible over-recovery strong enough to bring diesel prices down by up to 50 cents, if trends persist.
Motorists could see 95 Unleaded fall to R20.63 at the coast and R21.42 inland, while 93 Unleaded may dip to R21.31. Diesel could also reach its lowest point in months, offering slight relief to commercial transporters and everyday commuters alike.
The Bad: The Rand Dulls the Shine
Despite the favourable oil prices, the South African rand’s instability has taken a heavy toll. Earlier this month, the rand breached R19 to the dollar amid global financial jitters triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy shocks.
Even though the rand rebounded slightly to R18.64 by April 30, experts estimates show that the currency slump shaved off approximately 30 cents per litre in potential savings.
Without the depreciation of the local currency, motorists could have seen price cuts closer to 55 cents for petrol and 75 cents for diesel, based on the trajectory of global oil prices.
“The US confirmed tariffs on Chinese imports have been raised to 145%, overshadowing a temporary 90-day tariff pause for other countries,” said Bianca Botes, Director at Citadel Global.
“This increase could dampen oil demand from China, the world’s largest importer. Additionally, the expanded Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) accelerated production increases, heightening fears of oversupply.”
April’s Legacy and What to Expect
April brought a welcome drop at the pumps—95 Unleaded fell by 72 cents, 93 Unleaded by 58 cents, and diesel by as much as 86 cents. While May’s reductions are expected to be milder, they’re still meaningful in the context of global economic tension and a sluggish domestic currency.
The official May fuel prices are due to be announced by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) on Wednesday, May 7.
Until then, all eyes remain on the volatile rand and the continued performance of global oil benchmarks. Motorists are advised to keep tanks topped up but brace for short-term price unpredictability.
