South African motorists are bracing for record fuel prices in October, with both petrol and diesel on track to hit their highest levels in the country’s history at the same time.
The projection comes just weeks after drivers absorbed a fresh fuel price hike in September, and there is little sign of relief before the year ends.
Latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data, covering the first week of September, shows petrol sitting at an under-recovery of R1.81 a litre for 93 and R1.93 for 95.
Diesel is facing even greater pressure. The under-recovery stands at R1.73 for 0.05% sulphur diesel and R2.03 for 0.005% sulphur diesel.
Illuminating paraffin is also under pressure, with an under-recovery of R2.08.
If these levels hold, 95 petrol could rise to around R28.85 a litre in October, smashing the current record of R28.06 set in June 2026. That record came as the Iran war first rattled global oil markets.
The June record had itself overtaken the previous all-time high of R26.74, reached in July 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine shock.
October petrol price could break another record
Diesel is following the same grim path.
At a projected R32.08 a litre, October diesel pricing would beat the current record of R31.88 set in May 2026. That price was already far above the pre-2026 record of R25.53 from July 2022.
The pressure is particularly painful because temporary fuel levy relief has already come and gone.
Government reversed the tax cuts in June and July, removing an important buffer for motorists.
Oil prices near the $100 mark
The biggest driver behind the latest fuel price increase is the sharp rise in Brent crude.
Brent has surged past $99 a barrel, edging towards the psychological $100 mark. That is a major jump from around $70 mid-year, when peace talks briefly raised hopes that global oil markets could stabilise.
Those hopes have since collapsed.
Tensions between the US and Iran have deepened, while Iran has tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia has also halted some operations near its Yemen border following attacks.
Goldman Sachs analysts say markets are increasingly pricing in a prolonged Middle East conflict.
They are also revising oil price forecasts higher on the assumption that shipping disruptions could continue into 2027.
Rand offers little relief for South African motorists
The rand is providing only limited protection from higher global oil prices.
The currency is trading around R16 to the dollar, trimming only about 15 cents a litre from the current under-recovery.
For petrol to avoid another record, the under-recovery would need to fall by around 80 cents to R1.13 a litre before the end of September.
Given the current trajectory, that would require a significant turnaround in global oil prices.
The latest outlook adds to a bruising year for South African households. Consumer inflation reached a two-year high of 5.0% in June before easing to 4.3% in July.
Households are also still absorbing the impact of last year’s 12.74% Eskom electricity tariff hike.
For motorists, however, the immediate concern is clear: October could bring record petrol and diesel prices, putting even more pressure on already stretched household budgets.
