South African motorists are facing another sharp fuel price increase in October, with the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data pointing to increases of around R3 a litre for petrol and diesel.
The latest projections put 95 petrol on track for a R3.12-a-litre increase and 93 petrol at R2.93.
Diesel is also heading for an increase of close to R3 a litre, with 0.005% diesel tracking towards R33 inland.
The figures are still projections. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) is expected to announce the official October fuel-price adjustments before they take effect on Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
NOWinSA is tracking every South Africa fuel price update as the projections change.
October fuel price increase: projected petrol and diesel prices
The latest CEF figures show how sharply the South Africa fuel price increase could affect motorists compared with September.
| Fuel type | September | Projected change | Projected October |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R26.76 | +R2.93 | R29.69 |
| Petrol 95 | R26.92 | +R3.12 | R30.04 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R29.11 | ~+R2.73 | ~R31.84 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R30.05 | ~+R3.13 | ~R33.18 |
Petrol 95 could therefore cross R30 a litre inland, while 0.005% diesel could move above R33 if the current projections hold.
The figures have worsened as September has progressed.
As earlier predicted, October petrol and diesel face R3-a-litre hikes, although the final adjustment can still change before it is announced.
Note: Diesel figures are wholesale prices. Retail diesel prices can vary between service stations because diesel does not have the same regulated retail pricing structure as petrol.
What is driving the South Africa fuel cost hike?
Global oil prices are the main source of the pressure.
Brent crude has climbed sharply from the high-$80s a barrel in late August, with prices reaching around $108 during September as geopolitical tensions disrupted expectations around global energy supplies.
Those higher international prices have pushed South Africa’s fuel-price calculations deeper into under-recovery territory.
The rand has provided only limited relief. It has been trading at around R16.42 to the US dollar, offsetting only a small portion of the pressure from higher international fuel prices.
The wider Middle East conflict and uncertainty around energy supply routes have added to market volatility.
The conflict has already had far-reaching effects, including disruption to international travel and energy markets.
The slate levy could also affect the final October adjustment, depending on the amount carried into the new pricing cycle.
What the October fuel price increase means for motorists
For motorists, the impact will be immediate.
At the latest projection, filling a 50-litre tank with 95 petrol would cost about R156 more than in September if the full R3.12 increase is passed through.
Diesel users face a particularly steep increase.
Farmers, freight operators and other businesses that rely heavily on diesel could face higher operating costs, with some of those costs eventually feeding into transport and food prices.
There is little prospect of the government absorbing the entire increase. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has warned that shielding motorists from rising fuel prices would shift the burden to taxpayers or require additional government borrowing.
The South African Reserve Bank also raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% on September 23, adding to borrowing costs as motorists and businesses face higher fuel expenses.
The looming increase comes only months after government provided R3-a-litre fuel levy relief in April and May.
That temporary measure helped cushion motorists earlier in the year.
October fuel prices could still change
The projected figures are not the final October fuel prices.
International oil prices, the rand-dollar exchange rate and any changes to the slate levy can still move the calculation before the official adjustment is announced in the coming days.
